Fractal dan Alligator
November 9, 2010 by · Leave a Comment
Secara Ilmiah, kata Fractal dapat diartikan sebagai sebuah fragmen berbentuk geometris yang dapat dipecah menjadi lebih kecil dengan bentuk relative sama atau serupa. Definisi ini pertama kali ditemukan oleh ilmuan Benoit Mandelbrot pada tahun 1975. Sebenarnya konsep fractal ini sebelum ditemukan, analisa teknikal sedah menggunakan prisip dasarnya. Terutama melalui teori Elliot Wave pada tahun 1930-an.
Fractal disini adalah salah satu dari lima indicator yang di perkenalkan oleh Bill Williams. Indikator ini berfungsi untuk memberikan gambaran alternative tentang titik puncak (top) atau dasar (bottom) dan pergerakan harga suatu instrument pada periode tertentu.
Pada pembahasan ini, definisi sederhana dari fractal naik adalah bar yang memiliki high tertinggi, diapit oleh minimal dua bar ber-high lebih rendah. Demikian berlaku sebaliknya untuk fractal turun. Fractal-fractal yang terbentuk pada titik tertinggi atau titik terendah akan diberikan tanda anak panah.
Penggunaan Fractal
Penggunaan trading adalah dengan mengambil posisi sesuai arah breakout fractal. Jika harga bergerak melewati fractal naik, maka posisi yang diambil adalah buy. Sebaliknya jika harga bergerak melewati fractal turun, maka posisi yang diambil adala Sell. Akan tetapi tidak seluruh fractal dapat dijadikan sinyal. Hanya fractal yang dilalui oleh fractal lain dengan arah yang berlawanan saja yang dapat dijadikan sebagai sinyal. Fractal ada juga yang berjenis start, yakni fractal yang menjadi titik awal fractal sinyal. Dengan kata lain fractal yang selalu disusul dengan fractal lain yang berlawanan arah. Sehingga Fractal Start juga dapat digunakan sebagai penempatan Stop Loss.
Filter Alligator
Penggunaan Fractal sebagai sinyal harus di konfirmasikan dengan alligator sebagai filter. Jika Fractal buy lebih tinggi dari alligator’s teeth (garis yg berada di tengah pada indicator alligator), maka posisi buy diambil beberapa tick diatas fractal buy. Dan apabila fractal lebih rendah dari alligator’s teeth, maka transaksi sell sebaiknya diambil beberapa tick dibawah fractal sell. Karena setelah sinyal fractal terbentuk, maka ia akan bertahan sebagai sinyal sehingga terjadi failure atau fractal selanjutnya terbentuk.
Combining Forex Spot And Futures Transactions
November 7, 2010 by · Leave a Comment
In 1972, for the first time ever, everyday investors were allowed to trade the difference in currency values in the United States. Much of the world had just stopped pegging their currencies against the dollar and the oil industry was fueling a worldwide explosion in importing and exporting activity. To tap into this, currency trading was introduced in the form of futures contracts. At the time, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was strictly involved with agricultural products, but it saw the potential economic success of servicing the then nascent currency exchange market and decided to give it a chance.
By 2008, currency trading exceeded $3 trillion dollars daily, but the majority of traders only participate in a fraction of the currency opportunities available to them. However, the currency market is a multilayered kaleidoscope of spot, futures and options trading. The currency market also has very distinct trending patterns that can become more difficult to interpret the shorter the time frame to trade. This is the problem that many new currency traders face as they enter the world of spot trading, but it can be overcome by combining spot, futures and options currency trades. Read on to learn how this works.
Spot Trading Challenges
With the introduction of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000, spot currency trading (forex) became the rage. Traders that were new to currency trading could enter the spot market with as little as $300, giving them leverage of almost 500:1. While the leverage is inexpensive, small fluctuations can represent larger losses, as well as large profits, in a short period of time. Another major drawback to spot currency trading is the potential interest rate charges of holding on to a spot contract past the requisite 24-hour time period. Combine these issues with the slippage that occurs as a result of sporadic trading activity, and the challenges quickly become apparent as to why traders may find trading in the forex spot market difficult.
(For additional information, take a look at our Forex Walkthrough, it goes from beginner to advanced.)
There is a better way. When currency trading was first introduced in the futures market, it was created to act as protection – a hedge for multinational corporations and banks that needed to protect themselves from the downside risk of buying free floating currencies. They would take delivery of a particular currency, such as the Canadian dollar, and then short it in the futures market or buy a put in the options market just in case the currency dropped in value. This protection would allow them to hold on to their Canadian dollar trade longer in the face of short-term fluctuations that were simply minor retracements in an overall longer term trend. In the past 30 years, nothing has changed. The currency spot market can still be protected by the futures currency market, and the option currency market can protect both the spot and the futures currency market. (For related reading, see Practical And Affordable Hedging Strategies.)
The interrelationship between the currency spot and options and futures currency markets is rarely exploited by retail traders. Retail traders are typically fixated on fast profits with little regard to the downside risk beyond placing a stop order. This approach is just one-third of the currency universe. With the proper combination of the spot market and the futures market, or the spot market and the options market, a currency trader can optimize performance by taking advantage of both the short-term fluctuations while catching the long-term moves that would be missed by trading the spot market alone.
Downside Risk of Spot Forex Transactions
In Figure 1, we can see the euro trending upward from $1.44 to $1.60. This entire move of 16 cents (1 cent = $1,000 when using a standard contract of 100,000 units) represents a potential gain of $16,000 in the spot market. From February of 2008 to April 2008, there were multiple pullbacks and retracements.
On March 17, 2008, the market dropped in value from $1.56 to $1.53. This represents a $3,000 loss. The market eventually rebounds, but hindsight is 20/20 – while you are in the trade, there is no such consolation.
A $3,000-dollar drop could wipe out the margin of a full-sized spot forex contract. So, while you could be right about the market’s overall direction, you can be wrong on your timing in executing the trade. (For related reading, see Trading Is Timing.)
| Figure1 |
| Source: TradeNavigator.com |
While a trader with a strong money management program would not hold on to a loss of this magnitude all the way down, the fact that the trader must perfectly time the top and bottom of the market’s activity in order to succeed makes profiting a herculean task. Fortunately, there is a simple way to protect your account in the face of these factors. In Figure 1, it can clearly be seen that the market is trending up. In order to take maximum advantage of this momentum, there is no doubt that the smart money would go long the euro, as shown in Figure 2. To avoid a sudden pullback in price, the easiest position protection is to either short the euro in the futures market or purchase a euro put option. (For more on this strategy, see Prices Plunging? Buy A Put!)
| Figure 2 |
| Source: TradeNavigator.com |
Using Futures Contracts to Manage Spot Risks
If a euro futures contract is used, two new variables are added to the equation: the margin to use on the contract and the possibility that the market will move against your spot transaction. The margin in the euro futures market comes in either a full-sized contract or a mini futures contract. As of June 2008, a full-sized euro contract required a margin of $3,105 and every one-cent move would be equal to $1,250. A mini euro contract required a margin of $1,553, about half as costly, and a one-cent move equaled $625. (To learn more, see Forex Minis Shrink Risk Exposure.)
Depending on the amount of capital available to you, a full-sized futures contract makes the most sense as a source of protection from downside risk. On the other hand, you are losing an additional $250 for each one-cent move if you decide to use a futures contract to protect yourself and the market moves against you. You could also attempt to use a mini-euro contract, but the opposite problem would occur. Every one-cent move is worth $625 in the mini, but every one-cent move in the spot is $1,000. This leaves the position underprotected by $375 and defeats the purpose of the protective position altogether.
Using Options to Manage Spot Risks
Another route that a trader can take is to use a CME euro put option. Based on an option’s volatility, where its price is in relation to the underlying asset, and the time until expiration, the value of the put option will fluctuate. In this instance, we can choose to purchase a put option at the same price as when we decide to go long the spot euro contract. This would be considered an at-the-money option purchase. The option can range in value, but a general rule is that the option price will typically fall between 10-20% of the value of the futures margin. This could range anywhere from $300 to $600 in this instance. This small upfront cost is worth spending if it will help protect you from a $3,000 loss.
Because an option’s loss is limited to the amount invested, the spot trader’s risk exposure never exceeds the premium’s value. This means that the underlying spot position can increase in value without the worry that you will lose $250 for every one-cent move against you, like you would if you had a futures contract protecting you. (For more, see Getting Started In Forex Options.)
| Figure 3 |
| Source: TradeNavigator.com |
In Figure 3, the euro successfully rebounds from its low and eventually exceeds the original entry price of the spot euro contract. Without the option contract as protection, there would have been a potential loss of $3,000 for a spot position, with little to no recourse. The only hope for the spot trader losing money would have been to use a stop loss-order and hope to catch the rebound in time to make up for the loss.
3 Factors That Drive The U.S. Dollar
November 7, 2010 by · Leave a Comment
When it comes to the decision of whether you should buy or sell dollars, it all boils down to how the economy is performing. A strong economy will attract investment from all over the world due to the perceived safety and the ability to achieve an acceptable rate of return on investment. Investors always seek out the highest yield that is predictable or “safe.” Investment from abroad creates a strong capital account and a resulting high demand for dollars. (Learn about the basics of technical analysis in currency trading with our Forex Walkthrough.)
On the other hand, American consumption that results in the importing of goods and services from other countries causes dollars to flow out of the country. If our imports are greater than our exports, we will have a deficit in our current account. With a strong economy, a country can attract foreign capital to offset the trade deficit. The U.S. can continue as the consumption engine that fuels all the world economies even though it’s a debtor nation that borrows this money to consume. This also allows other countries to export to the U.S. and thus keep their economies growing. This explanation is simplistic, but it illustrates a point. (Learn more about how a country’s current account reflects the country’s economic health in Understanding The Current Account In The Balance Of Payments.)
Factors Affecting Dollar Value
The point is that when it comes to taking a position in the dollar, the currency trader needs to assess the different factors that affect the value of the dollar to try to determine a direction or trend. The methodology can be divided into three groups as follows:
- Supply and demand factors
- Sentiment and market psychology
- Technical factors
Let’s take each group individually.
Supply Versus Demand for Dollars
When we export products or services, we create a demand for dollars because our customers need to pay for our goods and services in dollars and, therefore they will have to convert their local currency into dollars. Hence they sell their currency to buy dollars so that they can make the payment.
In addition, when the U.S. government or large American corporations issue bonds to raise capital, and if these bonds are bought by foreigners then again the bonds have to be paid for in dollars and the customer will have to sell their local currency to buy dollars so they can effect payment. Also, if there is strong growth in the U.S. and companies are expanding their earnings then the desire by foreigners to own corporate stocks in the U.S. also requires that they sell their currency to buy dollars to pay for the purchase of stocks.
Sentiment and Market Psychology
But what if the U.S. economy weakens and consumption slows due to increasing unemployment? Then the U.S. is confronted with the possibility that foreigners may sell their bonds or stocks and return the cash from the sale in order to return to their local currency. Hence they sell the dollars and buy back their local currency.
Technical Factors
As traders, we have to gauge whether the supply of dollars will be greater or less than the demand for dollars. To help us determine this, we need to pay attention to various news and event items, such as the release by the government of various statistics, such as payroll data, GDP data, and other market and economy measuring information that can help us to determine what is happening in the economy and to estimate whether the economy is strengthening or weakening. (For a comprehensive overview of 24 major indicators, take a look at our Economic Indicators Tutorial.)
In addition, we need to determine the general sentiment regarding what the players in the market think the outcome of events is likely to be. Very often, sentiment will drive the market rather than the fundamentals of supply and demand. To add to this mix of prognostication, besides the measurement of supply and demand factors and sentiment, we also have the historical patterns generated by seasonal factors, support and resistance levels, technical indicators and so on. Many traders believe that these patterns are repetitive and therefore can be used to predict future movements. (Learn about the basics of technical analysis in our Technical Analysis Tutorial.)
Bringing Them All Together
Since trading relies on the ability of a trader to take a risk and manage it accordingly, traders usually adopt some combination of the three above methods to make their buy or sell decisions. The art of trading exists in stacking the odds in your favor and building an edge. If the probability of being correct is high enough the trader will enter the market and manage his hypothesis accordingly. To stack the odds in our favor we therefore need to take into account each one of the three methodologies and hopefully find them to be congruent, meaning that they all point in the same direction.
An Example
The economic conditions during the recession that began in 2007 forced the U.S. government to play an unprecedented role in the economy. Since economic growth was receding as a result of the large deleveraging of financial assets taking place, the government had to take up the slack by increasing government spending to keep the economy going. The purpose of their spending was to create jobs so that the consumer could earn money and increase consumption thereby fueling the growth needed to support economic growth. (For a review of the recession during this time period, refer to The 2007-08 Financial Crisis In Review.)
The government took this position at the expense of an increasing deficit and national debt. It financed this increase by essentially printing money and by selling government bonds to foreign governments and investors – resulting in an increase in the supply of dollars. Hence the dollar depreciated as a result. Another concern for countries that rapidly issue debt is that the interest burden will increase and, therefore, more tax dollars will be allocated just to cover the interest rate.
One of the roles of the government is to create the conditions necessary to allow the markets to grow so that is the economy is as close to full employment as possible, but with controlled inflation. Thus when the economy deflates the government will try to do all it can to re-inflate it in a controlled manner.
