There is, however, a third approach to analyzing a market. It combines the best of both fundamental and technical analysis into a singular approach that answers both questions of “why” and “when” simultaneously; this methodology is called volume spread analysis. The focus of this article is to introduce this methodology to the trading community, to outline its history, to define the markets and timeframes it works in, and to describe why it works so well.

What is Volume Spread Analysis?
Volume spread analysis (VSA) seeks to establish the cause of price movements. The “cause” is quite simply the imbalance between supply and demand in the market, which is created by the activity of professional operators (smart money). Who are these professional operators? In any business where there is money involved and profits to make, there are professionals. There are professional car dealers, diamond merchants and art dealers as well as many others in unrelated industries. All of these professionals have one thing in mind; they need to make a profit from a price difference to stay in business. The financial markets are no different. Doctors are collectively known as professionals, but they specialize in certain areas of medicine; the financial markets have professionals that specialize in certain instruments as well: stocks, grains, forex, etc.

The activity of these professional operators, and more important, their true intentions, are clearly shown on a price chart if the trader knows how to read them. VSA looks at the interrelationship between three variables on the chart in order to determine the balance of supply and demand as well as the probable near term direction of the market. These variables are the amount of volume on a price bar, the price spread or range of that bar (do not confuse this with the bid/ask spread), and the closing price on the spread of that bar (see Figure 1).

With these three pieces of information a properly trained trader will clearly see if the market is in one of four market phases: accumulation (think of it as professional buying at wholesale prices), mark-up, distribution (professional selling at retail prices) or mark-down. The significance and importance of volume appears little understood by most non-professional traders. Perhaps this is because there is very little information and limited teaching available on this vital part of chart analysis. To interpret a price chart without volume is similar to buying an automobile without a gasoline tank. For the correct analysis of volume, one needs to realize that the recorded volume information contains only half of the meaning required to arrive at a correct analysis. The other half of the meaning is found in the price spread (range).

Volume always indicates the amount of activity going on, and the corresponding price spread shows the price movement on that volume. Some technical indicators attempt to combine volume and price movements together, but this approach has its limitations; at times the market will go up on high volume, but it can do exactly the same thing on low volume. Prices can suddenly go sideways, or even fall off, on exactly the same volume! So there are obviously other factors at work on a price chart. One is the law of supply and demand. This is what VSA identifies so clearly on a chart: An imbalance of supply and the market has to fall; an imbalance of demand and the market has to rise.

A Long and Proven Pedigree
VSA is the improvement upon the original teaching of Richard D. Wyckoff, who started as a stock runner at the age of 15 in 1888. By 1911, Wyckoff was publishing his weekly forecasts, and at the height of his popularity, it was rumored that he had over 200,000 subscribers. In 1931 he published his correspondence course, which is still available today. In fact, the Wyckoff method is offered as part of the graduate level curriculum at the Golden Gate University in San Francisco. Wyckoff is said to have disagreed with market analysts who traded from chart formations that would signal whether to buy or sell. He estimated that mechanical or mathematical analysis techniques had no chance of competing with good training and practiced judgment.
Tom Williams, a former syndicate trader (professional operator in the stock market) for 15 years in the 1960s-1970s, enhanced the work started by Wyckoff. Williams further developed the importance of the price spread and its relationship to both the volume and the close. Williams was in a unique situation that allowed him to develop his methodology. He was able to monitor the effects of the syndicate’s trading activity on the price chart. As a result, he was able to discern which resulting price gyrations derived from the syndicate’s action on the various stocks they were buying and selling. In 1993, Williams made his work available to the public when he published his methodology in a book titled Master the Markets.

A Universal Approach
Just as Wyckoff’s approach was universal in its application to all markets, the same is true of VSA. It works in all markets and in all timeframes, as long as the trader can get a volume histogram on the chart. In some markets this will be actual traded volume, as it is with individual stocks, yet in other markets the trader will need access to tick-based volume, as is the case with forex. Because the forex market does not trade from a centralized exchange, true traded volume figures are not available, but this does not mean that the trader cannot analyze volume in the forex market, it simply requires that tick-based volume be used instead.

Think of volume as the amount of activity on each individual bar. If there is a lot of activity on that price bar, then the trader objectively knows that the professional operator is heavily involved; if there is little activity then the professional is withdrawing from the move. Each scenario can have implications to the supply/demand balance on the chart and can help the trader determine the direction the market is likely to move in the short to medium term. A forex example will be shown later in this article. Just as VSA is a universal approach to all markets, this methodology works equally well in all time frames. It makes no difference if the trader is looking at a 3-minute chart, or if daily or weekly charts are being analyzed—the principles involved remain the same. Obviously, if supply is present on a 3-minute chart, the resulting downward move will be of a lesser magnitude than supply showing itself on a weekly chart, but the result of excess supply on a chart is the same in both instances; if there is too much supply, then the market must fall.

Why it Works
Every market moves on supply and demand: Supply from professional operators and demand from professional operators. If there is more buying than selling then the market will move up. If there is more selling than buying, the market will move down. Before anyone gets the impression that the markets are this easy to read, however, there is much more going on in the background than this simple logic. This is the important part of which most non-professional traders are unaware! The underlying principle stated above is correct; however, supply and demand actually work in the markets quite differently. For a market to trend up, there must be more buying than selling, but the buying is not the most important part of the equation as the price rises. For a true uptrend to take place, there has to be an absence of major selling (supply) hitting the market. Since there is no substantial selling to stop the up move, the market can continue up.

What most traders are completely unaware of is that the substantial buying has already taken place at lower levels as part of the accumulation phase. And the substantial buying from the professional operators actually appears on the chart as a down bar/s with a volume spike. VSA teaches that strength in a market is shown on down bars and weakness is shown on up bars. This is the opposite of what most traders think they know as the truth of the market. For a true downtrend to occur, there must be a lack of substantial buying (demand) to support the price. The only traders that can provide this level of buying are the professional operators, but they have sold at higher price levels earlier on the chart during the distribution phase of the market. The professional selling is shown on the price chart during an up bar/s with a volume spike, weakness appears on up bars. Since there is now very little buying occurring, the market continues to fall until the mark down phase is over. The professional operator buys into the selling that is almost always created by the release of bad news; this bad news will encourage the mass public (herd) to sell (almost always for a loss). This professional buying happens on down bars. This activity has been going on for well over 100 years, yet most retail traders have remained uninformed about it—until now.

VSA at Work
Let’s now look at a clear example of supply entering a market as the professional operators are selling into a rising market. Please see Figure 2 as we look at the U.S. dollar/Swiss franc spot forex market on a 30-minute price chart. This market was in the mark-up phase until the bar labeled 1; notice the massive volume spike as an ultra wide spread, up bar, appears with the price closing in the middle of the bar. This is a telltale sign of professional selling entering the market; a trader must look at this bar and realize that if all the activity shown on the volume histogram represented buying, we could not possibly have the price close on the middle of the bar. Because professional operators trade with very large size, they have to sell into up bars when the herd is buying; this is how they unload their large size onto the unsuspecting public. Many times, these types of bars are created from news reports that appear very bullish to retail traders and invite their participation on the long side of the market. When this occurs, it creates the opportunity for professional operators to systematically sell their holdings and short the market, without driving the price down against their own selling.

A properly trained trader understands instantly that when the bar closes in the middle like this, with massive volume, it signifies a transfer of ownership from the professionals to what VSA refers to as “weak holders,” traders that will soon be on the wrong side of the trade. Think of the analogy used earlier in this article; this is the professional operators “selling at retail” (distribution) when earlier they established their positions by “buying at wholesale” (accumulation). On the bar labeled 2, again we have more selling from the professionals as they complete the transfer of ownership to weak hands. The trained trader can see this as the bar labeled 3 is now closing lower, confirming that there was a large block of selling on the previous bar.

Don’t Be Part of the Herd
Let’s review what just happened on the price chart here. The professional money has sold their holdings to the mass public called the “herd” or “weak holders.” The professionals sold short and the new buyers are locked into a poor position. How can price continue higher when the professional money won’t support higher prices and there are no other buyers left to buy? With no buyers left to support the price, the price falls as the chart continues on into the mark down process (see Figure 3). To explain why prices fall in any market, let’s refer to a previous statement: “For a true downtrend to occur, there must be a lack of substantial buying (demand) to support the price. The only traders that can provide this level of buying are the professional operators, but they have sold at higher price levels earlier on the chart, during the distribution phase of the market.”

When the price falls far enough, the professional operator will now enter the market and buy (at wholesale levels) from the “weak holders,” who are forced to sell at a substantial loss, and the cycle will repeat itself over and over again. This is the way all markets work! Because professional operators specialize in many different markets and many different time frames, this same sequence of events unfold on price charts of all durations. We reviewed a 30-minute chart in this article, but it could just as easily have been a weekly chart. The market we looked at was forex, but volume spread analysis works just as well in stocks, futures and commodities. VSA is a market analysis methodology that alerts the trader to the two most important questions that they must know the answers to in order to trade successfully — why and when. Why markets move is based on the supply and demand from professional operators, and when they move can be expanded upon once the trader has a more thorough understanding of volume spread analysis.

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Rekomendasi
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Fractal disini adalah salah satu dari lima indicator yang di perkenalkan oleh Bill Williams. Indikator ini berfungsi untuk memberikan gambaran alternative tentang titik puncak (top) atau dasar (bottom) dan pergerakan harga suatu instrument pada periode tertentu.

Pada pembahasan ini, definisi sederhana dari fractal naik adalah bar yang memiliki high tertinggi, diapit oleh minimal dua bar ber-high lebih rendah. Demikian berlaku sebaliknya untuk fractal turun. Fractal-fractal yang terbentuk pada titik tertinggi atau titik terendah akan diberikan tanda anak panah.

Penggunaan Fractal

Penggunaan trading adalah dengan mengambil posisi sesuai arah breakout fractal. Jika harga bergerak melewati fractal naik, maka posisi yang diambil adalah buy. Sebaliknya jika harga bergerak melewati fractal turun, maka posisi yang diambil adala Sell. Akan tetapi tidak seluruh fractal dapat dijadikan sinyal. Hanya fractal yang dilalui oleh fractal lain dengan arah yang berlawanan saja yang dapat dijadikan sebagai sinyal. Fractal ada juga yang berjenis start, yakni fractal yang menjadi titik awal fractal sinyal. Dengan kata lain fractal yang selalu disusul dengan fractal lain yang berlawanan arah. Sehingga Fractal Start juga dapat digunakan sebagai penempatan Stop Loss.

Filter Alligator

Penggunaan Fractal sebagai sinyal harus di konfirmasikan dengan alligator sebagai filter. Jika Fractal buy lebih tinggi dari alligator’s teeth (garis yg berada di tengah pada indicator alligator), maka posisi buy diambil beberapa tick diatas fractal buy. Dan apabila fractal lebih rendah dari alligator’s teeth, maka transaksi sell sebaiknya diambil beberapa tick dibawah fractal sell. Karena setelah sinyal fractal terbentuk, maka ia akan bertahan sebagai sinyal sehingga terjadi failure atau fractal selanjutnya terbentuk.

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By 2008, currency trading exceeded $3 trillion dollars daily, but the majority of traders only participate in a fraction of the currency opportunities available to them. However, the currency market is a multilayered kaleidoscope of spot, futures and options trading. The currency market also has very distinct trending patterns that can become more difficult to interpret the shorter the time frame to trade. This is the problem that many new currency traders face as they enter the world of spot trading, but it can be overcome by combining spot, futures and options currency trades. Read on to learn how this works.

Spot Trading Challenges

With the introduction of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000, spot currency trading (forex) became the rage. Traders that were new to currency trading could enter the spot market with as little as $300, giving them leverage of almost 500:1. While the leverage is inexpensive, small fluctuations can represent larger losses, as well as large profits, in a short period of time. Another major drawback to spot currency trading is the potential interest rate charges of holding on to a spot contract past the requisite 24-hour time period. Combine these issues with the slippage that occurs as a result of sporadic trading activity, and the challenges quickly become apparent as to why traders may find trading in the forex spot market difficult.

(For additional information, take a look at our Forex Walkthrough, it goes from beginner to advanced.)

There is a better way. When currency trading was first introduced in the futures market, it was created to act as protection – a hedge for multinational corporations and banks that needed to protect themselves from the downside risk of buying free floating currencies. They would take delivery of a particular currency, such as the Canadian dollar, and then short it in the futures market or buy a put in the options market just in case the currency dropped in value. This protection would allow them to hold on to their Canadian dollar trade longer in the face of short-term fluctuations that were simply minor retracements in an overall longer term trend. In the past 30 years, nothing has changed. The currency spot market can still be protected by the futures currency market, and the option currency market can protect both the spot and the futures currency market. (For related reading, see Practical And Affordable Hedging Strategies.)

The interrelationship between the currency spot and options and futures currency markets is rarely exploited by retail traders. Retail traders are typically fixated on fast profits with little regard to the downside risk beyond placing a stop order. This approach is just one-third of the currency universe. With the proper combination of the spot market and the futures market, or the spot market and the options market, a currency trader can optimize performance by taking advantage of both the short-term fluctuations while catching the long-term moves that would be missed by trading the spot market alone.

In Figure 1, we can see the euro trending upward from $1.44 to $1.60. This entire move of 16 cents (1 cent = $1,000 when using a standard contract of 100,000 units) represents a potential gain of $16,000 in the spot market. From February of 2008 to April 2008, there were multiple pullbacks and retracements.

On March 17, 2008, the market dropped in value from $1.56 to $1.53. This represents a $3,000 loss. The market eventually rebounds, but hindsight is 20/20 – while you are in the trade, there is no such consolation.

A $3,000-dollar drop could wipe out the margin of a full-sized spot forex contract. So, while you could be right about the market’s overall direction, you can be wrong on your timing in executing the trade. (For related reading, see Trading Is Timing.)

While a trader with a strong money management program would not hold on to a loss of this magnitude all the way down, the fact that the trader must perfectly time the top and bottom of the market’s activity in order to succeed makes profiting a herculean task. Fortunately, there is a simple way to protect your account in the face of these factors. In Figure 1, it can clearly be seen that the market is trending up. In order to take maximum advantage of this momentum, there is no doubt that the smart money would go long the euro, as shown in Figure 2. To avoid a sudden pullback in price, the easiest position protection is to either short the euro in the futures market or purchase a euro put option. (For more on this strategy, see Prices Plunging? Buy A Put!)

Using Futures Contracts to Manage Spot Risks

If a euro futures contract is used, two new variables are added to the equation: the margin to use on the contract and the possibility that the market will move against your spot transaction. The margin in the euro futures market comes in either a full-sized contract or a mini futures contract. As of June 2008, a full-sized euro contract required a margin of $3,105 and every one-cent move would be equal to $1,250. A mini euro contract required a margin of $1,553, about half as costly, and a one-cent move equaled $625. (To learn more, see Forex Minis Shrink Risk Exposure.)

Depending on the amount of capital available to you, a full-sized futures contract makes the most sense as a source of protection from downside risk. On the other hand, you are losing an additional $250 for each one-cent move if you decide to use a futures contract to protect yourself and the market moves against you. You could also attempt to use a mini-euro contract, but the opposite problem would occur. Every one-cent move is worth $625 in the mini, but every one-cent move in the spot is $1,000. This leaves the position underprotected by $375 and defeats the purpose of the protective position altogether.

Another route that a trader can take is to use a CME euro put option. Based on an option’s volatility, where its price is in relation to the underlying asset, and the time until expiration, the value of the put option will fluctuate. In this instance, we can choose to purchase a put option at the same price as when we decide to go long the spot euro contract. This would be considered an at-the-money option purchase. The option can range in value, but a general rule is that the option price will typically fall between 10-20% of the value of the futures margin. This could range anywhere from $300 to $600 in this instance. This small upfront cost is worth spending if it will help protect you from a $3,000 loss.

Because an option’s loss is limited to the amount invested, the spot trader’s risk exposure never exceeds the premium’s value. This means that the underlying spot position can increase in value without the worry that you will lose $250 for every one-cent move against you, like you would if you had a futures contract protecting you. (For more, see Getting Started In Forex Options.)

In Figure 3, the euro successfully rebounds from its low and eventually exceeds the original entry price of the spot euro contract. Without the option contract as protection, there would have been a potential loss of $3,000 for a spot position, with little to no recourse. The only hope for the spot trader losing money would have been to use a stop loss-order and hope to catch the rebound in time to make up for the loss.

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On the other hand, American consumption that results in the importing of goods and services from other countries causes dollars to flow out of the country. If our imports are greater than our exports, we will have a deficit in our current account. With a strong economy, a country can attract foreign capital to offset the trade deficit. The U.S. can continue as the consumption engine that fuels all the world economies even though it’s a debtor nation that borrows this money to consume. This also allows other countries to export to the U.S. and thus keep their economies growing. This explanation is simplistic, but it illustrates a point. (Learn more about how a country’s current account reflects the country’s economic health in Understanding The Current Account In The Balance Of Payments.)

Factors Affecting Dollar Value

The point is that when it comes to taking a position in the dollar, the currency trader needs to assess the different factors that affect the value of the dollar to try to determine a direction or trend. The methodology can be divided into three groups as follows:

• Supply and demand factors
• Sentiment and market psychology
• Technical factors

Let’s take each group individually.

Supply Versus Demand for Dollars

When we export products or services, we create a demand for dollars because our customers need to pay for our goods and services in dollars and, therefore they will have to convert their local currency into dollars. Hence they sell their currency to buy dollars so that they can make the payment.

In addition, when the U.S. government or large American corporations issue bonds to raise capital, and if these bonds are bought by foreigners then again the bonds have to be paid for in dollars and the customer will have to sell their local currency to buy dollars so they can effect payment. Also, if there is strong growth in the U.S. and companies are expanding their earnings then the desire by foreigners to own corporate stocks in the U.S. also requires that they sell their currency to buy dollars to pay for the purchase of stocks.

Sentiment and Market Psychology

But what if the U.S. economy weakens and consumption slows due to increasing unemployment? Then the U.S. is confronted with the possibility that foreigners may sell their bonds or stocks and return the cash from the sale in order to return to their local currency. Hence they sell the dollars and buy back their local currency.

Technical Factors

As traders, we have to gauge whether the supply of dollars will be greater or less than the demand for dollars. To help us determine this, we need to pay attention to various news and event items, such as the release by the government of various statistics, such as payroll data, GDP data, and other market and economy measuring information that can help us to determine what is happening in the economy and to estimate whether the economy is strengthening or weakening. (For a comprehensive overview of 24 major indicators, take a look at our Economic Indicators Tutorial.)

In addition, we need to determine the general sentiment regarding what the players in the market think the outcome of events is likely to be. Very often, sentiment will drive the market rather than the fundamentals of supply and demand. To add to this mix of prognostication, besides the measurement of supply and demand factors and sentiment, we also have the historical patterns generated by seasonal factors, support and resistance levels, technical indicators and so on. Many traders believe that these patterns are repetitive and therefore can be used to predict future movements. (Learn about the basics of technical analysis in our Technical Analysis Tutorial.)

Bringing Them All Together

Since trading relies on the ability of a trader to take a risk and manage it accordingly, traders usually adopt some combination of the three above methods to make their buy or sell decisions. The art of trading exists in stacking the odds in your favor and building an edge. If the probability of being correct is high enough the trader will enter the market and manage his hypothesis accordingly. To stack the odds in our favor we therefore need to take into account each one of the three methodologies and hopefully find them to be congruent, meaning that they all point in the same direction.

An Example

The economic conditions during the recession that began in 2007 forced the U.S. government to play an unprecedented role in the economy. Since economic growth was receding as a result of the large deleveraging of financial assets taking place, the government had to take up the slack by increasing government spending to keep the economy going. The purpose of their spending was to create jobs so that the consumer could earn money and increase consumption thereby fueling the growth needed to support economic growth. (For a review of the recession during this time period, refer to The 2007-08 Financial Crisis In Review.)

The government took this position at the expense of an increasing deficit and national debt. It financed this increase by essentially printing money and by selling government bonds to foreign governments and investors – resulting in an increase in the supply of dollars. Hence the dollar depreciated as a result. Another concern for countries that rapidly issue debt is that the interest burden will increase and, therefore, more tax dollars will be allocated just to cover the interest rate.

One of the roles of the government is to create the conditions necessary to allow the markets to grow so that is the economy is as close to full employment as possible, but with controlled inflation. Thus when the economy deflates the government will try to do all it can to re-inflate it in a controlled manner.

The IMM Exchange was formed as a separate division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and as of 2009, was the second largest futures exchange in the world. The primary purpose of the IMM is to trade currency futures, a relatively new product previously studied by academics as a way to open a freely traded exchange market to facilitate trade among nations.

The first futures experimental contracts included trades against the U.S. dollar such as the British pound, Swiss franc, German deutschmark, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen and in September 1974, the French franc. This list would later expand to include the Australian dollar, the euro, emerging market currencies such as the Russian ruble, Brazilian real, Turkish lira, Hungarian forint, Polish zloty, Mexican peso and South African rand. In 1992, the German deutschmark/Japanese yen pair was introduced as the first futures cross rate currency. But these early successes didn’t come without a price. (Learn how to trade currencies, read Getting Started in Foreign Exchange Futures.)

The Drawbacks of Currency Futures

The challenging aspects were how to connect values of IMM foreign exchange contracts to the interbank market – the dominant means of currency trading in the 1970s - and how to allow the IMM to be the free-floating exchange envisioned by academics. Clearing member firms were incorporated to act as arbitrageurs between banks and the IMM to facilitate orderly markets between bid and ask spreads. The Continental Bank of Chicago was later hired as a delivery agent for contracts. These successes bred an unforeseen level of competition for new futures products.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange competed and received the right to trade U.S. 30-year bond futures while the IMM secured the right to trade eurodollar contracts, a 90 day interest rate contract settled in cash rather than physical delivery. Eurodollars came to be known as the “eurocurrency market,” which is used mainly by the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which always required payment for oil in U.S. dollars. This cash settlement aspect would later pave the way for index futures such as world stock market indexes and the IMM Index. Cash settlement would also allow the IMM to later become known as a “cash market” because of its trade in short-term, interest rate sensitive instruments.

A System for Transactions

With new competition, a transaction system was desperately needed. The CME and Reuters Holdings created the Post Market Trade (PMT) to allow a global electronic automated transaction system to act as a single clearing entity and link the world’s financial centers like Tokyo and London. Today, PMT is known as Globex, which facilitates not only clearing but electronic trading for traders around the world. In 1975, U.S. T-bills were born and began trading on the IMM in January 1976. T-bill futures began trading in April 1986 with approval from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.

The Rise of the Forex Market

The real success would come in the mid 1980s when options began trading on currency futures. By 2003, foreign exchange trading had hit a notional value of $347.5 billion. (Be aware of forex risks, check out Foreign-Exchange Risk.)

The 1990s were a period of explosive growth for the IMM due to three world events:

1. Basel I in July 1988
   The 12 nation European Central Bank governors agreed to standardize guidelines for banks. Bank capital had to be equal to 4% of assets. (For background reading, see Does The Basel Accord Strengthen Banks?)
2. 1992 Single European Act
   This not only allowed capital to flow freely throughout national borders but also allowed all banks to incorporate in any EU nation.
3. Basel II
   This is geared to control risk by preventing losses, the realization of which is still a work in progress. (To learn more, read Basel II Accord To Guard Against Financial Shocks.)

A bank’s role is to channel funds from depositors to borrowers. With these news acts, depositors could be governments, governmental agencies and multinational corporations. The role for banks in this new international arena exploded in order to meet the demands of financing capital requirements, new loan structures and new interest rate structures such as overnight lending rates; increasingly, IMM was used for all finance needs.

Plus, a whole host of new trading instruments was introduced such as money market swaps to lock in or reduce borrowing costs, and swaps for arbitrage against futures or hedge risk. Currency swaps would not be introduced until the the 2000s. (Find out how tools magnify your gains and losses, read Forex Leverage: A Double-Edged Sword.)

Financial Crises and Liquidity

In financial crisis situations, central bankers must provide liquidity to stabilize markets because risk may trade at premiums to a bank’s target rates, called money rates, that central bankers can’t control. Central bankers then provide liquidity to banks that trade and control rates. These are called repo rates, and they are traded through the IMM. Repo markets allow participants to undertake rapid refinancing in the interbank market independent of credit limits to stabilize the system. A borrower pledges securitized assets such as stocks in exchange for cash to allow its operations to continue.

Asian Money Markets and the IMM

Asian money markets linked up with the IMM because Asian governments, banks and businesses needed to facilitate business and trade in a faster way rather than borrowing U.S. dollar deposits from European banks. Asian banks, like European banks, were saddled with dollar-denominated deposits because all trades were dollar-denominated as a result of the U.S. dollar’s dominance. So, extra trades were needed to facilitate trade in other currencies, particularly euros. Asia and the E.U. would go on to share not only an explosion of trade but also two of the most widely traded world currencies on the IMM. For this reason, the Japanese yen is quoted in U.S. dollars, while eurodollar futures are quoted based on the IMM Index, a function of the three-month LIBOR.

The IMM Index base of 100 is subtracted from the three-month LIBOR to ensure that bid prices are  below the ask price. These are normal procedures used in other widely traded instruments on the IMM to insure market stabilization.

Economic Indicators

Economic indicators are reports released by the government or a private organization that detail a country’s economic performance. Economic reports are the means by which a country’s economic health is directly measured, but do remember that a great deal of factors and policies will affect a nation’s economic performance.

These reports are released at scheduled times, providing the market with an indication of whether a nation’s economy has improved or declined. The effects of these reports are comparable to how earnings reports, SEC filings and other releases may affect securities. In forex, as in the stock market, any deviation from the norm can cause large price and volume movements.

You may recognize some of these economic reports, such as the unemployment numbers, which are well publicized. Others, like housing stats, receive little coverage. However, each indicator serves a particular purpose, and can be useful. Here we outline four major reports, some of which are comparable to particular fundamental indicators used by equity investors:

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The GDP is considered the broadest measure of a country’s economy, and it represents the total market value of all goods and services produced in a country during a given year. Since the GDP figure itself is often considered a lagging indicator, most traders focus on the two reports that are issued in the months before the final GDP figures: the advance report and the preliminary report. Significant revisions between these reports can cause considerable volatility. The GDP is somewhat analogous to the gross profit margin of a publicly traded company in that they are both measures of internal growth. (Learn more about this important number in High GDP Means Economic Prosperity, Or Does It?)

Retail Sales
The retail-sales report measures the total receipts of all retail stores in a given country. This measurement is derived from a diverse sample of retail stores throughout a nation. The report is particularly useful because it is a timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns that is adjusted for seasonal variables. It can be used to predict the performance of more important lagging indicators, and to assess the immediate direction of an economy. Revisions to advanced reports of retail sales can cause significant volatility. The retail sales report can be compared to the sales activity of a publicly traded company. (Read more in Using Consumer Spending As A Market Indicator.)

Industrial Production
This report shows the change in the production of factories, mines and utilities within a nation. It also reports their ‘capacity utilizations‘, the degree to which the capacity of each of these factories is being used. It is ideal for a nation to see an increase of production while being at its maximum or near maximum capacity utilization.

Traders using this indicator are usually concerned with utility production, which can be extremely volatile since the utilities industry, and in turn the trading of and demand for energy, is heavily affected by changes in weather. Significant revisions between reports can be caused by weather changes, which in turn, can cause volatility in the nation’s currency.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The CPI is a measure of the change in the prices of consumer goods across over 200 different categories. This report, when compared to a nation’s exports, can be used to see if a country is making or losing money on its products and services. Be careful, however, to monitor the exports – it is a focus that is popular with many traders because the prices of exports often change relative to a currency’s strength or weakness. (For further reading, check out The Consumer Price Index: A Friend To Investors.)

Some of the other major indicators include the purchasing managers index (PMI), producer price index (PPI), durable goods report, employment cost index (ECI), and housing starts. And don’t forget the many privately issued reports, the most famous of which is the Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey. All of these provide a valuable resource to traders, if used properly.

So, How Are These Used?

Since economic indicators gauge a country’s economic state, changes in the conditions reported will therefore directly affect the price and volume of a country’s currency. It is important to keep in mind, however, that the indicators discussed above are not the only things that affect a currency’s price. There are third-party reports, technical factors, and many other things that also can drastically affect a currency’s valuation. Here are a few useful tips that may help you when conducting fundamental analysis in the foreign exchange market:

• Keep an economic calendar on hand that lists the indicators and when they are due to be released. Also, keep an eye on the future; often markets will move in anticipation of a certain indicator or report due to be released at a later time. (You’ll find more information in Trading On News Releases.)
• Be informed about the economic indicators that are capturing most of the market’s attention at any given time. Such indicators are catalysts for the largest price and volume movements. For example, when the U.S. dollar is weak, inflation is often one of the most watched indicators.
• Know the market expectations for the data, and then pay attention to whether or not the expectations are met. That is far more important than the data itself. Occasionally, there is a drastic difference between the expectations and actual results and, if there is, be aware of the possible justifications for this difference.
• Don’t react too quickly to the news. Oftentimes, numbers are released and then revised, and things can change quickly. Pay attention to these revisions, as they may be a useful tool for seeing the trends and reacting more accurately to future reports.

Stochastic and MACD

Before diving into the intricacies of the combined strategy, let’s first briefly review how to interpret both the stochastic and MACD oscillators.

Stochastic Oscillator
The stochastic oscillator was developed in the 1950s and is used to show the positioning of the current close relative to the high/low range of the currency over a period of time. The indicator shows buying or selling pressure in the market. Consistently higher levels reflect buying support in the market, while comparatively lower levels indicate of selling pressure. As a result, the oscillator uncovers extreme readings in price levels, showing overextended momentum through barriers set at 20 and 80. Readings below the 20 reference mark indicate that the market has been oversold; readings rising above 80 represent overbought conditions.

The stochastic oscillator is able to isolate tops and bottoms in the market that correspond with support and resistance in range-bound channel environments. Because of this, the stochastic oscillator is great for short-term trading. (To learn more, read Exploring Oscillators And Indicators: Stochastics Oscillator.)

MACD Oscillator
Used in range-bound markets, the MACD oscillator is based on moving averages (a 26-day and 12-day exponential moving average (EMA) with a trigger moving average established by a nine-day exponential moving average).

Trading on the “Snap”

If we take both tools into consideration, the underlying theme with trading a “snap” setup relies on the strengths of both indicators. Establishing the longer term trend in the MACD, the trader is able to create entry opportunities in the foreign exchange market using the stochastic as a reference. However, in this case, most traders will choose to adjust the parameters of the indicator so that the number of periods corresponds to the longer-term trend. Ultimately, a longer, smoother stochastic D% line is the best way to confirm the directional bias with the MACD line as in Figure 1.

Source: FX Trek Intellicharts

Figure 1: Stochastic and MACD show the directional bias in the market.

In Figure 1, both the MACD and Stochastic D% line move in tandem over the span of 24 hours in the euro/Japanese yen currency pair. Although the MACD does lag behind the stochastic visual, it virtually confirms the longer term upside bias in the currency pair. Now, with the longer term bias established, the trader or currency speculator will begin entering when the shorter K% stochastic line “snaps” back upward or rejoins the overall upward trend. Our first example is shown at Point A.

With the currency pair declining over the last 24 hours, the momentum seemed to be turning as price begins to consolidate. The notion is confirmed by what seems to be a turn in the stochastic, later confirmed by the turn in MACD. As a result, after seeing the confirming uptick in the longer term MACD trend, the trader sees the opportunity as the K% line turns up and rejoins the longer term upward direction of the market. Ultimately, with a corresponding stop placed at the previous session low, the trader is able to capture the short-term burst that occurs in the price action.

Now let’s take an easy, step-by-step approach to applying the “snap” setup in the New Zealand dollar/Japanese yen currency cross (Figure 2). After declining over the last 24 hours, the market looks to take the pair higher, as both the stochastic and MACD oscillators have turned upward. Notably, it is good to remember at this point that the stochastic oscillator has been revamped to reflect settings of 7, 3 and 20, rather than remaining at the standard settings. (For more insight, read Make The Currency Cross Your Boss.)

1. Establish the trend. With stochastic D% line turning upward first, the trader looks for a confirming rise/crossover in the MACD, establishing the longer term trend.
2. Take positions in the direction of the trend. In the trade example presented in Figure 2, the speculator would be looking to take a long position as both stochastic and MACD have turned higher. As a result, our first trade will be at Point B.
3. Assess the position. With the trade setup in place, a long position is taken at the “snap”, placing the entry at the close of the hourly session, 94.29. Subsequently, the stop would be placed at the session low of 94.01, keeping in time with disciplined risk management. As the trade unfolds, a trailing stop is applied to the position in order to further gains and minimize substantial moves against the outstanding buy. As a result, the full length of the move to 95.88 gives the trader ample reward – 159 pips overall – before any initial take-back is seen.

Source: FX Trek Intellicharts

Figure 2: A perfect “snap” setup in the NZD/JPY currency pair

Donchian Channels
Donchian channels are price channel studies that are available on most charting packages and can be profitably applied by both novice and expert traders. Although the application was intended mostly for the commodity futures market, these channels can also be widely used in the FX market to capture short-term bursts or longer-term trends. Created by Richard Donchian, considered to be the father of successful trend following, the study contains the underlying currency fluctuations and aims to place profitable entries upon the start of a new trend through penetration of either the lower or upper band. Based on a 20-period moving average (and thus sometimes referred to as a moving average indicator), the application additionally establishes bands that plot the highest high and lowest low. As a result, the following signals are produced:

• A buy, or long, signal is created when the price action breaks through and closes above the upper band.
• A sell, or short, signal is created when the price action breaks through and closes below the lower band.

The theory behind the signals may seem a little confusing at first, as most traders assume that a break of the upper or lower boundary signals a reversal, but it is actually quite simple. If the current price action is able to surpass the range’s high (provided enough momentum exists), then a new high will be established because an uptrend is ensuing. Conversely, if the price action can crash through the range’s low, a new downtrend may be in the works. Let’s look at a prime example of how this theory works in the FX markets.

Figure 1: A typical example of the effectiveness of Donchian channels

Source: FXtrek Intellicharts

In Figure 1, we see the short, one hour time-framed euro/U.S. dollar currency pair chart. We can see that, prior to December 8, the price action is contained in tight consolidation within the parameters of the bands. Then, at 2am on December 8, the price of the euro makes a run on the session and closes above the band at Point A. This is a signal for the trader to enter a long position and liquidate short positions in the market. If entered correctly, the trader will gain almost 100 pips in the short intraday burst.

Keltner Channels

Another great channel study that is used in multiple markets by all types of traders is the Keltner channel. The application was introduced by Chester W. Keltner (in his book “How To Make Money In Commodities” (1960)) and later modified by famed futures trader Linda B. Raschke. Raschke altered the application to take into account average true range calculation over 10 periods. As a result, the volatility-based technical indicator bears many similarities to Bollinger bands. The difference between the two studies is simply that Keltner’s channels represent volatility using the high and low prices, while Bollinger’s studies rely on the standard deviation. Nonetheless, the two studies share similar interpretations and tradable signals in the currency markets. Like Bollinger bands, Keltner channel signals are produced when the price action breaks above or below the channel bands. Here, however, as the price action breaks above or below the top and bottom barriers, a continuation is favored over a retracement back to the median or opposite barrier. (To learn more, see Discovering Keltner Channels And The Chaikin Oscillator and The Basics Of Bollinger Bands.)

• If the price action breaks above the band, the trader should consider initiating long positions while liquidating short positions.
• If the price action breaks below the band, the trader should consider initiating short positions while exiting long, or buy, positions.

Let’s dive further into the application by looking at the example below.

Figure 2: Three profitable opportunities are presented to the trader through Keltner.

Source: FXtrek Intellichart

By applying the Keltner study to a daily charted British pound/Japanese yen currency cross pair we can see that the price action breaks above the upper barrier, signaling for the trader to initiate long positions. Placing effective entries, the FX trader will have the opportunity to effectively capture profitable swings higher and at the same time exit efficiently, maximizing  profits. No other example is more visually stunning than the initial break above the upper barrier. Here, the trader can initiate above the close of the initial session burst above at Point A on July 17. After the initial entry is placed above the close of the session, the trader is able to capture approximately 300 pips before the price action pulls back to retest support. Subsequently, another position can be initiated at Point B, where momentum once again takes the position approximately 350 pips higher

STARC Bands

Also similar to the Bollinger band technical indicator, STARC (or Stoller Average Range Channels) bands are calculated to incorporate market volatility. Developed by Manning Stoller in the 1980s, the bands will contract and expand depending on the fluctuations in the average true range component. The main difference between the two interpretations is that STARC bands help to determine the higher probability trade rather than standard deviations containing the price action. Simply put, the bands will allow the trader to consider higher or lower risk opportunities rather than a return to a median.

• Price action that rises to the upper band offers a lower risk sell opportunity and a high-risk buy situation.
• Price action that declines to the lower band offers a lower risk buy opportunity and a high-risk sell situation.

This is not to say that the price action won’t go against the newly initiated position; however, STARC bands do act in the trader’s favor by displaying the best opportunities. If this indicator is coupled with disciplined money management, the FX enthusiast will be able to profit by taking on lower risk initiatives and minimizing losses. Let’s take a look at an opportunity in the New Zealand dollar/U.S. dollar currency pair.

Figure 3: A great risk to reward is presented through this STARC bands example in the NZD/USD.

Source: FXtrek Intellicharts

Looking at New Zealand dollar/U.S. dollar currency pair presented in Figure 3, we see that the price action has been mounting a bullish rise over the course of November, and the currency pair looks ripe for a retracement of sorts. Here, the trader can apply the STARC indicator as well as a price oscillator (Stochastic, in this case) to confirm the trade. After overlaying the STARC bands, the trader can see a low-risk sell opportunity as we approach the upper band at Point A. Waiting for the second candle in the textbook evening star formation to close, the individual can take advantage by placing an entry below the close of the session. Confirming with the downside cross in the Stochastic oscillator, Point X, the trader will be able to profit almost 150 pips in the day’s session as the currency plummets from 0.7150 to an even 0.7000 figure. Notice that the price action touches the lower band at that point, signaling a low-risk buy opportunity or a potential reversal in the short-term trend.

Putting It All Together

Now that we’ve examined trading opportunities using channel-based technical indicators, it’s time to take a detailed look at two more examples and to explain how to capture such profit windfalls.

In Figure 4 we see a great short-term opportunity in the British pound/Swiss franc currency cross pair. We’ll put the Donchian technical indicator to work and go through the process step by step.

Figure 4: Applying the Donchian channel study, we see a couple of extremely profitable opportunities in the short time frame of a one-hour chart.

Source: FXtrek Intellichart

These are the steps to follow:

1. Apply the Donchian channel study on the price action. Once the indicator is applied, the opportunities should be clearly visible, as you are looking to isolate periods where the price action breaks above or below the study’s bands.

2. Wait for the close of the session that is potentially above or below the band. A close is needed for the setup as the pending action could very well revert back within the band’s parameters, ultimately nullifying the trade.

3. Place the entry at slightly above or below the close. Once momentum has taken over, the directional bias should push the price past the close.

4. Always use stop management. Once the entry has been executed, the stop should always be considered, as in any other situation.

Applying the Donchian study in Figure 4, we find that there have been several profitable opportunities in the short time span. Point A is a prime example: here, the session closes below the bottom channel, lending to a downside trend. As a result, the entry is placed at the low of the session after the close, at 2.2777. The subsequent stop will be placed slightly above the high of the session, at 2.2847. Once you are in the market, you can either liquidate your short position on the first leg down or hold on to the sell. Ideally, the position would be held in retaining a legitimate risk to reward ratio. However, in the event the position is closed, you may consider a re-initiation at Point B. Ultimately, the trade will profit over 120 pips, justifying the high stop.

Defining a Keltner Opportunity

It’s not just Donchians that are used to capture profitable opportunities – Keltner applications can be used as well. Taking the step-by-step approach, let’s define a Keltner opportunity:

1. Overlay the Keltner channel indicator onto the price action. As with the Donchian example, the opportunities should be clearly visible, as you are looking for penetration of the upper or lower bands.

2. Establish a session close of the candle that is the closest or within the channel’s parameters.

3. Place the entry four to five points below the high or low of the session’s candle.

4. Money management is applied by placing a stop slightly below the session’s low or above the session’s high price.

Let’s apply these steps to the British pound/U.S. dollar example below.

Figure 5: A tricky but profitable catch using the Keltner channel

Source: FXtrek Intellichar

In Figure 5, we see a very profitable opportunity in the British pound/U.S. dollar major currency pair on the daily time frame. Already testing the upper barrier twice in recent weeks, the trader can see a third attempt as the price action rises on July 27 at Point A. What needs to be obtained at this point is a definitive close above the barrier, constituting a break above and signaling the initiation of a long position. Once the chartist receives the clear break and closes above the barrier, the entry will be placed five points above the high of the closed session (entry). This will ensure that momentum is on the side of the trade and the advance will continue. The notion will place our entry precisely at 1.8671. Subsequently, our stop will be placed below the low price by one to two points, or in this case at 1.8535. The trade pays off as the price action moves higher in the following weeks with our profits maximized at the move’s high of 1.9128.  Giving us a profit of over 400 pips in less than a month, the risk reward is maximized at more than a 3:1 ratio.